The Revised Natural History Model for Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis

This calculator is intended for use by health care providers. The results of this tool should never be used alone to determine a patient's medical treatment. This tool is a statistical model and is not a substitute for an individual treatment plan developed by a doctor with personal knowledge of a specific patient. Other important factors that must be considered include the patient's own medical history and the experience, knowledge and training of the doctor. Doctors should personally discuss these results with patients when presenting prognoses or treatment recommendations.

In the following model, survival probability of a patient with primary sclerosing cholangitis is estimated based on the following variables. Please enter data in the corresponding boxes.

Please choose one of the following for history of variceal bleeding.
Risk score:
Estimated Probability of Survival (%)
Time 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4

Kim WR et al. A revised natural history model for primary sclerosing cholangitis. Mayo Clinic Proceedings 2000;75:688-694. PubMed.