The Revised Natural History Model for Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis

This calculator is intended for use by health care providers. The results should not be used alone to determine medical treatment. This tool is a statistical model and is not a substitute for an individual treatment plan developed by a health care provider with personal knowledge of a specific patient. Factors such as medical history and the health care provider’s experience, knowledge, and training must also be considered. Results should be discussed with patients when presenting prognoses or treatment recommendations.

In the following model, survival probability of a patient with primary sclerosing cholangitis is estimated based on the following variables. Please enter data in the corresponding boxes.

Please choose one of the following for history of variceal bleeding.
Risk score:
Estimated Probability of Survival (%)
Time 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4

Kim WR et al. A revised natural history model for primary sclerosing cholangitis. Mayo Clinic Proceedings 2000;75:688-694. PubMed.