The Updated Natural History Model for Primary Biliary Cholangitis

This calculator is intended for use by health care providers. The results should not be used alone to determine medical treatment. This tool is a statistical model and is not a substitute for an individual treatment plan developed by a health care provider with personal knowledge of a specific patient. Factors such as medical history and the health care provider’s experience, knowledge, and training must also be considered. Results should be discussed with patients when presenting prognoses or treatment recommendations.

In the following model, short-term survival probability of a patient with primary biliary cholangitis is estimated based on repeated observation. Please enter data in the corresponding boxes.

Does the patient have peripheral edema?
Is the patient on diuretic therapy?
Risk score:

Estimated Probability of Survival (%)

Time 0 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 9 Mos. 12 Mos. 15 Mos. 18 Mos. 24 Mos.

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