If you have estrogen receptor (ER) positive breast cancer, you may have questions about what to expect. Survival rates can give a general idea of how people with similar breast cancers have done over time. But these numbers are based on large groups of people. They can't predict what will happen in your situation.
ER positive breast cancer is a type of hormone receptor (HR) positive breast cancer. Survival statistics aren't reported for ER positive breast cancer alone. Instead, ER positive breast cancer is included in statistics for HR positive breast cancer. HR positive means that the cancer cells have receptors for estrogen, progesterone or both.
The National Cancer Institute (NCI) tracks cancer survival rates in the United States. The numbers provided by the NCI are five-year relative survival rates. These rates compare people with breast cancer to people in the overall population. For example, a five-year relative survival rate of 90% means that people with breast cancer are about 90% as likely as people without breast cancer to be alive five years after diagnosis.
Some people find survival statistics helpful. Others may find them confusing or overwhelming. Your healthcare team can help you understand what these numbers may mean for you.
Survival statistics
The National Cancer Institute (NCI) tracks cancer survival rates in the United States. For these statistics, breast cancer is grouped by how far it has spread. The groups are localized, regional and distant. These groups are different from the stages used to describe breast cancer.
The NCI also groups breast cancer by HR and HER2 status. HR positive breast cancer can be HER2 positive or HER2 negative. Survival rates are reported separately for these groups.
For HR positive, HER2-negative breast cancer, the five-year relative survival rates are:
- Localized. The cancer is only in the breast. The five-year relative survival rate is 100%.
- Regional. The cancer has spread to nearby lymph nodes or other nearby tissues. The five-year relative survival rate is 91%.
- Distant. The cancer has spread to distant parts of the body. The five-year relative survival rate is 38%.
For HR positive, HER2-positive breast cancer, the five-year relative survival rates are:
- Localized. The five-year relative survival rate is about 100%.
- Regional. The five-year relative survival rate is 92%.
- Distant. The five-year relative survival rate is 49%.
These statistics are based on people diagnosed with breast cancer in previous years. Breast cancer treatments continue to improve, so the numbers may not reflect the effects of newer treatments.
Your own outlook depends on many factors. These include how far the cancer has spread, the tumor grade, HER2 status, your overall health and the effectiveness of the treatment you get. For some early-stage ER positive, HER2 negative breast cancers, genomic tests also can help estimate the risk of the cancer coming back.
ER positive breast cancer can come back many years after treatment. But the risk is different for each person. Your healthcare team can use information about your cancer and treatment to help you understand what to expect.
Aug. 26, 2026