Survival rates can give information about prognosis, also called outlook, and life expectancy. These numbers are based on groups of people. They cannot predict how long one person will live.
The National Cancer Institute collects cancer statistics from across the United States. For esophageal cancer that has spread to distant parts of the body, the estimated survival rates are:
| Time after diagnosis |
Survival rate |
| 1 year |
29.3% |
| 5 years |
6.3% |
| 10 years |
4.4% |
What affects survival?
Many factors can affect survival with metastatic esophageal cancer. These include treatment, age, the type of esophageal cancer, where it has spread, overall health and how the cancer responds to treatment.
Treatment
Treatment can help some people with metastatic esophageal cancer live longer. In one large study, half of the people who received pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy lived at least 12.3 months. Half of those who received chemotherapy alone lived at least 9.8 months. At five years, about 11% of people who received pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy were alive, compared with 3% of those who received chemotherapy alone.
There is no single estimate for how long someone will live without treatment. In one study, half of the people who received supportive care alone lived about four months or longer. Half of those who received chemotherapy plus supportive care lived about nine months or longer. Most people in the study had squamous cell carcinoma, so these results may not apply to everyone with metastatic esophageal cancer.
Age
Age also may affect survival. In one study, half of the people diagnosed before age 50 lived at least seven months. Half of those diagnosed at age 50 or older lived at least five months. Younger people still had somewhat better survival after researchers accounted for other differences between the groups.
Where the cancer has spread
Where the cancer has spread also may affect survival. In one study of people younger than 50, half lived at least:
- Seven months with cancer that had spread to the liver.
- Eight months with cancer that had spread to the lungs.
- Five months with cancer that had spread to the bones.
- Six months with cancer that had spread to the brain.
Among people age 50 and older, half lived at least four months when the cancer had spread to the bones, liver or lungs. Half lived at least six months when it had spread to the brain.
These numbers are estimates from groups of people diagnosed from 2010 through 2020. They cannot predict one person's life expectancy.
Reliable life expectancy estimates aren't available for many less common sites of spread, such as the thyroid or breast.
Can metastatic esophageal cancer go into remission?
Some people with metastatic esophageal cancer have a strong response to treatment. The cancer may shrink a lot or may not be seen on tests for a time. Clinical studies call this a complete response.
A complete response does not mean the cancer is cured. At later stages, esophageal cancer can be treated but rarely can be cured.
Sept. 24, 2026