The Mayo Natural History Model for Primary Biliary Cirrhosis

This calculator is intended for use by health care providers. The results of this tool should never be used alone to determine a patient's medical treatment. This tool is a statistical model and is not a substitute for an individual treatment plan developed by a doctor with personal knowledge of a specific patient. Other important factors that must be considered include the patient's own medical history and the experience, knowledge and training of the doctor. Doctors should personally discuss these results with patients when presenting prognoses or treatment recommendations.

In the following model, survival probability of a patient with primary biliary cirrhosis without treatment is estimated based on the following variables. Please enter data in the corresponding boxes.

Does the patient have peripheral edema?
Is the patient on diuretic therapy?
Risk score:

Estimated Probability of Survival (%)

Time 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7

Dickson ER et al. Prognosis in primary biliary cirrhosis: model for decision making. Hepatology 1989;10:1-7. PubMed.