The Mayo Natural History Model for Primary Biliary Cirrhosis

In the following model, survival probability of a patient with primary biliary cirrhosis without treatment is estimated based on the following variables. Please enter data in the corresponding boxes.

Does the patient have peripheral edema?
Is the patient on diuretic therapy?
Risk score:

Estimated Probability of Survival (%)

Time 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7

Dickson ER et al. Prognosis in primary biliary cirrhosis: model for decision making. Hepatology 1989;10:1-7. PubMed.