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Gastroenterology in Minnesota

The Updated Natural History Model for Primary Biliary Cirrhosis

In the following model, short-term survival probability of a patient with primary biliary cirrhosis is estimated based on repeated observation. Please enter data in the corresponding boxes.

How old is the patient? (years)
What is the bilirubin? (mg/dl)
What is the albumin? (g/dl)
What is the prothrombin time? (seconds)
Does the patient have peripheral edema? No    Yes
Is the patient on diuretic therapy? No    Yes

Risk score:

Estimated Probability of Survival (%)
Time 0 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 9 Mos. 12 Mos. 15 Mos. 18 Mos. 24 Mos.
100

Murtaugh PA et al. Primary biliary cirrhosis: prediction of short-term survival based on repeated patient visits. Hepatology 1994;20:126-134. PubMed .

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