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Gastroenterology and Hepatology in Minnesota

The Mayo Natural History Model for Primary Biliary Cirrhosis

In the following model, survival probability of a patient with primary biliary cirrhosis without treatment is estimated based on the following variables. Please enter data in the corresponding boxes.

How old is the patient? (years)
What is the bilirubin? (mg/dl)
What is the albumin? (g/dl)
What is the prothrombin time? (seconds)
Does the patient have peripheral edema? No    Yes
Is the patient on diuretic therapy? No    Yes

Risk score:

Estimated Probability of Survival (%)
Time 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7
100


Dickson ER et al. Prognosis in primary biliary cirrhosis: model for decision making. Hepatology 1989;10:1-7. PubMed.

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